FAQ, COPs, IPCC and more...

• Our class FAQ is further below...

Here come the COPs (...and the NCA ...and the IPCC

Global warming has been talked about for a while. It has also been the subject of vigorous political debate.

Maybe, just maybe...

• We should get some experts together, shut them in a room with all the most recent papers and studies they can find, let *them* argue for a while, and have them tell us what's going on? What's the latest science on climate change?

  This is the idea behind the NCA (USA) and the IPCC (the world)

• Since this is a global problem, howzabout representatives of different countries get together and agree to DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT?

  This is the idea behind the annual Conference of Parties (COPs) and the Paris Agreement (COP 21 in 2015).
  

The Paris Agreement and COPs

The Paris Agreement (2015) is an international treaty

• Started by... The UN which convoked representatives from many countries to come to agreements about targets for emissions mitigation, adaptation to climate change, and how to pay for it (finance).
• Who's in? 195 countries have signed on to (they are "parties" to) the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Their goal is to limit the rise in average global temperatures to 2${}^o$ C, and preferably less than 1.5${}^o$ C.

  To do this each country comes with voluntary "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs).

• How are countries doing with those voluntary goals? Climate Action Tracker - climateactiontracker.org has been documenting those pledges, progress, and how much they matter. Start with their Global > The CAT thermometer
• Can we read their reports? There goal is not to write reports. They keep meeting once a year to hash out details and changes to the Paris agreement. These annual meetings are called COPs, "Conference of Parties".
  

  The most recent meeting was COP29--November of 2024 -- in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.

  We had a local reporter there! Jim Stump is employed by BioLogos, and has joined the Christian Climate Observers Program(CCOP) to take part in recent COPs..

  COP 28 was held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. A major oil-producing nation. A big issue was a push for a committment to phase-out fossil fuels.

  Amid applause and relief, the world’s governments had finally agreed to call on countries to begin “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.
  
  The Guardian

  -

  The big issue at COP 27 was a loss and damage fund that rich, historically carbon-emitting countries would contribute to, to support poor countries that have emitted very little carbon.

The IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc.ch)

• Started by... the UN and the World Meteorological Association to assess the status and science of climate change.
• Who's in? It consists of 100s of people: scientists and also diplomats, and politicians, and report regularly (about every 5-7 years) on their consensus about the state of the world.
• Can we read their reports? Here they are. Different groups within the IPCC publish in different years, with major updates (AR4 2007, AR5 2013, AR6 2021) about every 7 years.
• Received the Nobel Peace Prize (2007) along with Al Gore.

Their measured consensus (2017) (phrased cautiously, and precisely with regard to uncertainty)

• There has been an increase in world temperatures of approximately 1${}^o$F (0.5 C) since 1957,
• which, with a likelihood of 90% is due to human activity rather than being a natural effect.

Compare to Al Gore:

"There is overwhelming and incontrovertible evidence of global warming".

FAQ - climate change

Frequently asked questions.

How many of us are commuting? ...are living on campus?

7 of you are commuting. 14 are living on campus.

Biggest cause?

Two major ones:

1. Burning fossil fuels: coal, oil (includes gasoline and diesel fuel), natural gas. See $CO_2$ and Greenhouse Emissions (Our World in Data).

   As climate scientist Peter Kalmus puts it:

   At its topmost level, climate science has one thing to teach in regards to the well-being of our species and the rest of the biosphere: To curtail global warming , stop burning fossil fuels.

   • Not "reduce",
   • Not "cut by 50%",
   • But stop burning fossil fuels.
   Some surprises:
   • $CO_2$ emissions continue to rise, but per-capita emissions are dropping in economically advanced countries -- including the major emitters China and the USA.
   • The price of renewable energy and batteries have dropped dramatically, and now new solar and new wind are almost always cheaper than fossil fueld energy.
2. Land use changes.
   • Deforestation results in the carbon in all those trees, and from soil that has been disturbed returning to the atmosphere as $CO_2$. Forest fires are one major cause of deforestation, as well as being a consequence of higher temperatures (drying out soil and vegetation).
   • Agriculture drives much deforestation. See Environmental Impacts of Food Production [Our World in Data]. Some surprises:
     • What kind of food you eat (less beef, more plants) has a much greater impact on carbon emissions than how far the food has travelled to reach you.

What can I do personally to address climate change?

Climate Scientist Katharine Hayhoe suggests that the most important thing you can do to fight climate change is to talk about it. (But don't bother with the "dismissives".) And she has suggestions about how to do that.